Electricity price forecasts
We produce electricity price forecasts for corporate energy budgeting, covering wholesale and retail power markets worldwide.
Forecasts run on an annual basis through 2030, built on actual data and calibrated forward years.
Our clients are typically multinationals and utilities with significant power costs across several markets, but we also work with clients interested in individual countries.
How We Help Clients
- Market outlook: We explain the likely direction of wholesale and retail electricity prices in each market, including the upstream drivers behind them, to provide a framework for planning.
- Electricity price scenarios: Every price series is wrapped in Base (most likely), Bull (high-price) and Bear (low-price) paths, so you can budget against a range rather than a single point estimate.
- Market and policy updates: We track carbon prices, generation mix shifts, capacity and storage build-out, and other structural changes that move wholesale power prices in each market.
- Client support: We answer follow-up questions about market drivers, forecasts, and country-specific developments.
- Common use cases: Clients use the forecasts for budgeting, energy procurement, scenario planning, risk assessment, hedging, and keeping stakeholders informed.
What Is Included
- Historical wholesale or retail electricity price data
- Annual forecast prices through 2030
- Base, Bull and Bear price scenarios
- Local-currency and USD-normalised price views, with the underlying FX reference
- Explanations of the market and policy drivers behind each forecast
- Customizable focus depending on client needs, such as more emphasis on price numbers, market structure, or policy commentary
Cost
Pricing depends on the markets required, whether wholesale, retail or both, and whether you need a one-off forecast or a subscription with regular updates. Significant discounts apply for multiple markets.
Please contact us via LinkedIn or at [email protected] with your markets of interest, or with any questions and for a quote.
Frequently asked questions
What markets have electricity price forecasts?
We generate electricity price forecasts for the following 46 markets: all G20 economies plus OECD member countries not already in the G20, listed alphabetically.
Both wholesale and retail electricity prices are forecast where a liberalized wholesale market exists. Markets with no liberalized wholesale price, such as Costa Rica and Israel, are left blank in the wholesale series rather than filled with a placeholder; retail prices are still forecast for these markets where available.
| Argentina | Greece | Norway |
| Australia | Hungary | Poland |
| Austria | Iceland | Portugal |
| Belgium | India | Russia |
| Brazil | Indonesia | Saudi Arabia |
| Canada | Ireland | Slovakia |
| Chile | Israel | Slovenia |
| China | Italy | South Africa |
| Colombia | Japan | South Korea |
| Costa Rica | Latvia | Spain |
| Czechia | Lithuania | Sweden |
| Denmark | Luxembourg | Switzerland |
| Estonia | Mexico | Türkiye |
| Finland | Netherlands | United Kingdom |
| France | New Zealand | United States |
| Germany |
Both wholesale and retail electricity prices are forecast where a liberalized wholesale market exists. Markets with no liberalized wholesale price, such as Costa Rica and Israel, are left blank in the wholesale series rather than filled with a placeholder; retail prices are still forecast for these markets where available.
What is the method for electricity price forecasting?
The model uses a two-layer structure. A fundamental layer anchors price levels to upstream commodity, macroeconomic and policy drivers: gas benchmarks, carbon prices and FX. A scenario layer then wraps every price series in three internally consistent paths - Base (most likely), Bull (high-price) and Bear (low-price) - so budget holders can plan against a range rather than a single point estimate.
Historical years are populated from authoritative public sources - market operators and data platforms such as ENTSO-E, the EIA, JEPX, KPX and AEMO - via repeatable update scripts, with every value carrying a source comment and date stamp. Forward years are calibrated against current institutional outlooks - including the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration - and cross-checked against merit-order fundamentals, rather than extrapolated mechanically.
Historical years are populated from authoritative public sources - market operators and data platforms such as ENTSO-E, the EIA, JEPX, KPX and AEMO - via repeatable update scripts, with every value carrying a source comment and date stamp. Forward years are calibrated against current institutional outlooks - including the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration - and cross-checked against merit-order fundamentals, rather than extrapolated mechanically.
Are electricity price forecasts accurate?
Forecast accuracy depends on how closely a market's structural drivers can be identified and tracked. For each market, the model is calibrated to its own drivers: hydrology mean-reversion for Brazil, Colombia and Chile; renewables-and-supply-glut softening for China and India; demand-growth support for the US and Canada; and market-specific structural premiums, modelled explicitly rather than assumed constant.
As with any commodity-linked forecast, accuracy is generally highest in tranquil periods and widens around unexpected shocks - supply disruptions, extreme weather, or abrupt policy change. That is why every series carries a Bull/Bear range alongside the Base case, and why forward assumptions are reviewed quarterly against the latest institutional publications.
Do you track carbon prices and other policies?
Yes. Wholesale power prices are anchored in part to carbon prices: the EU ETS benchmark, for example, is modelled through 2030 with its own Bull and Bear cases reflecting more ambitious or more conservative policy scenarios. We also track structural shifts - such as battery-storage build-out, generation-mix changes, and evolving market and congestion dynamics - that affect wholesale premiums in individual markets.
Along with each forecast, we provide a concise narrative on the market and policy developments that shape it.
What is the difference between wholesale and retail forecasts?
Wholesale forecasts cover the market-clearing power price in each market - the price generators and large buyers transact at - sourced from market operators and data platforms such as ENTSO-E, JEPX, KPX and AEMO. Retail forecasts cover the prices end consumers pay: residential electricity, sourced from national statistical and regulatory bodies such as the EIA, METI, KEPCO and Eurostat.
Both are shown in local currency alongside a USD-normalised view, so markets with very different currency dynamics - Türkiye's lira-denominated prices, for example - remain directly comparable to the US or Japan in real dollar terms.
What future oil, gas and carbon prices do you use?
On an ongoing basis, we compile the oil, gas and carbon projections of the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and other institutions, alongside forward-market pricing where available.
Based on that research, we generate Base, Bull and Bear scenarios for each upstream driver which then inform the wholesale power forecasts across the model.
Are you available for follow-up questions?
Yes, we respond promptly to questions from our clients and others interested in our services.
The ongoing communication with clients regarding the latest forecasts, anticipated policy changes or the impact of major shifts in energy prices is an integral part of the service.
