Diesel and gasoline price forecast

In some countries, fuel prices are regulated, with the government setting prices. Often, fuel prices adjust slowly and partially to oil price changes, making political considerations essential.

In countries with liberalized fuel markets, prices adjust more rapidly but the size of the adjustments depends on taxation policies. The same change in oil prices results in different retail price changes.

Therefore, forecasting requires in-depth knowledge of the fuel market policies in a country. We have carried out such analysis across countries for over ten years.

Based on that, we have developed a custom forecasting model for each country that incorporates our proprietary historical data and our insights into important country specifics. The models are continuously reevaluated to reflect the most recent data and policies.

The forecasts are compiled by a team of economists lead by Neven Valev, a Ph.D. economist with substantial research and teaching experience (Google Scholar, LinkedIn). Please feel free to contact Neven for more information.

We generate forecasts only for countries where the models have over 90 percent accuracy based on a variety of metrics including the difference between the predicted and the actual levels of fuel prices.

Therefore, we generate forecasts for about 80 of the over 150 countries where we track fuel prices. In the remaining countries, the level of government intervention in fuel prices is too high and uncertain to allow a reasonable degree of predictability.

Yes, we generate 10 year forecasts on demand. In those cases, we research the most recent projections about peak oil demand and the corresponding long-term oil price forecasts.

We also take a look at the longer history of fuel price trends in a country to try and glean the likelihood of major policy interventions at some point in the future.

These forecasts are annual as opposed to monthly, i.e. we project the level of fuel prices on an annual basis under the medium, high and low price scenarios.

Our typical client is a manufacturing multinational or a transport and logistics company with significant transport expenses. In these cases, diesel is the primary fuel of interest as it is heavily used in trucking.

These companies use our forecasts to inform their fuel procurement decisions and to budget supply chain costs. Often, the high-low scenarios are used to establish budget parameters and the need to implement hedging.

The companies frequently reach out to us to clarify various series in the forecasts and to ask us about the likely impact of anticipated policy changes. These communications are part of their ongoing subscription for the forecasts. Essentially, we monitor policies and trends and are available to answer questions on demand.

There are other clients too, however, where both diesel and gasoline prices are of interest. For example, we serve national automobile associations that need to inform their membership of future fuel costs.

On an ongoing basis, we compile the oil demand and oil price projections of the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the World Bank, OPEC, and various other agencies. We also consult with the latest oil price predictions of major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Merryl Lynch and surveys of forecastes reported in the media by Reuters and others.

We also look at the forward market with the caveat that forward prices are not necessarily a reflection of market expectations of future oil prices.

Based on that research and our own experience studying these markets for over a decade, we generate three oil price scenarios for the medium price trajectory which captures the current “consensus” view as well as a low and a high price scenarios that reflect more extreme possible developments that are unlikely but that one cannot rule out.

We use STATA, a long-standing and widely used software for econometric analysis.

However, much of our research is qualitative in nature looking at government reports and media articles about fuel price policies in various countries.

Yes, we respond promptly to questions from our clients and others interested in our services.

In fact, the ongoing communication with clients regarding the latest forecasts, any anticipated policy changes or the impact of major shifts in energy prices is an integral part of the service.

We generate forecasts for the following countries:

Andorra	Greece	Oman
Aruba	Grenada	Pakistan
Australia	Guatemala	Panama
Austria	Honduras	Peru
Belgium	Hong Kong	Philippines
Bosnia and Herzegovina	Hungary	Poland
Brazil	India	Portugal
Bulgaria	Indonesia	Qatar
Cambodia	Ireland	Romania
Canada	Israel	Russia
Cape Verde	Italy	Serbia
Chile	Jamaica	Singapore
China	Japan	Slovakia
Colombia	Jordan	Slovenia
Costa Rica	Kenya	South Africa
Croatia	Laos	South Korea
Cyprus	Latvia	Spain
Czech Republic	Lesotho	Sweden
Denmark	Lithuania	Switzerland
Dominican Republic	Luxembourg	Taiwan
El Salvador	Malaysia	Tanzania
Estonia	Mayotte	Thailand
Fiji	Mexico	Turkey
Finland	Moldova	Ukraine
France	Montenegro	United Kingdom
Georgia	Myanmar	USA
Germany	N. Macedonia	Vietnam
Ghana	Nepal