Diesel price forecast for 80 countries

Use our forecasts to enhance your fuel cost budgeting, diesel buying decisions, and scenario planning. We have provided that service to small and large companies worldwide for over five years.


Methods
  • Sophisticated technical analysis using our proprietary data and in-house statistical expertise.
  • Ongoing in-depth research on diesel price policies across countries.
  • Continuous monitoring of oil market developments and projections.

What is included
  • 6 months of historical data and forecast values for the next 24 months.
  • Medium, high, and low-price scenarios.
  • Measures of forecast accuracy.
  • Explanation of diesel price policies and oil price projections.

Cost and money-back guarantee
  • Only 85 USD per country.
  • Significant discount for multiple countries.
  • Subscription options available.
  • Full refund if you are not satisfied, no questions asked.




Frequently asked questions

For what countries do you generate forecasts?
We generate forecasts for the following countries:

Andorra Greece Oman
Aruba Grenada Pakistan
Australia Guatemala Panama
Austria Honduras Peru
Belgium Hong Kong Philippines
Bosnia and Herzegovina Hungary Poland
Brazil India Portugal
Bulgaria Indonesia Qatar
Cambodia Ireland Romania
Canada Israel Russia
Cape Verde Italy Serbia
Chile Jamaica Singapore
China Japan Slovakia
Colombia Jordan Slovenia
Costa Rica Kenya South Africa
Croatia Laos South Korea
Cyprus Latvia Spain
Czech Republic Lesotho Sweden
Denmark Lithuania Switzerland
Dominican Republic Luxembourg Taiwan
El Salvador Malaysia Tanzania
Estonia Mayotte Thailand
Fiji Mexico Turkey
Finland Moldova Ukraine
France Montenegro United Kingdom
Georgia Myanmar USA
Germany N. Macedonia Vietnam
Ghana Nepal
How do you generate the forecasts?
We use our proprietary fuel price data and ongoing research into fuel market policies to investigate the factors that drive fuel prices in various countries. Based on that and the latest oil price forecasts, we are able to generate fuel price projections. The following document summarizes our methodology.

The forecasts are compiled by a team of economists headed by Neven Valev, a Ph.D. economist with substantial research and teaching experience (Google Scholar, LinkedIn). Please feel free to contact Neven for more information.

Are the forecasts accurate?
For all 80 countries that we cover, our models are very accurate in the following sense. If we know what the Brent oil price will be after, say, one year, then (taking into account national policy, exchange rates, seasonality, inflation, etc.), we can tell with about 95 percent accuracy what the diesel price will be. The main reason is that these markets are either highly liberalized or regulated, but the regulated prices closely follow oil price developments. Hence, in those countries, the data reveals stable historical patterns.

Therefore, the question becomes whether the oil price predictions are accurate. If the oil predictions are accurate, the diesel price prediction will also be accurate.

For the oil price predictions, we use the latest forecasts from:
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency;
  • Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, and other investment banks;
  • Regular surveys of forecasters published by media agencies such as Reuters; and
  • The futures prices on the forward market.
We aggregate those predictions into our medium, low, and high scenarios. Essentially, that is the best available forecast on oil prices given all current relevant information reflected in the forecasts of various market participants.

During tranquil times, these predictions are generally accurate. In times of unexpected and large shocks, they are wrong. And because the oil market is subject to shocks, the forecasts come with a high-low range that reflects the upward and downward risks.

Against that background, we could select periods in the past where the forecasts came true and times when they did not. But, with the exception of the first months of the pandemic (when oil prices collapsed) and the first months of the war in Ukraine (when they sharply increased), the forecasts have been within the high-low range and often close to the medium predicted values. And even if they are somewhat off, they still reflect the general upward or downward trajectory that likely unfolds over time.

How do your clients use the forecasts?
Our clients include multinationals and logistics companies with significant transport expenses as well as national automobile associations, investment and consulting companies, and NGOs. They use the forecasts for:
  • Fuel procurement
  • Budgeting, scenario planning, risk assessment, and hedging
  • Keeping members or constituents informed on transport costs


Do you track fuel taxes and other policies?
Yes. Along with the forecast, every month we provide a concise narrative on oil price developments and country policy changes (taxes, regulations, etc) that impact diesel prices. Many countries have been active in that regard, trying to balance environmental, affordability, and fiscal objectives, particularly since the energy price shock in 2022. Hence, we keep track of those policies as they impact the forecasts quite a bit.

For those interested in policy, you may look at our fuel price regulations page that we update every month.

For what countries in Europe do generate diesel price forecasts?
We generate diesel price forecasts for the following 39 countries in Europe:

Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom.

What is the cost?
The cost depends on whether you need:
  • a one-time forecast or a subscription
  • if a subscription, monthly or quarterly updates
  • how many countries; we provide discounts for multiple countries
  • gasoline or diesel price forecast, or both
Please contact us for more information.

What future oil prices do you use?
On an ongoing basis, we compile the oil demand and oil price projections of the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the World Bank, OPEC, and various other agencies. We also consult with the latest oil price predictions of major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Merryl Lynch and surveys of forecastes reported in the media by Reuters and others.

We also look at the forward market with the caveat that forward prices are not necessarily a reflection of market expectations of future oil prices.

Based on that research and our own experience studying these markets for over a decade, we generate three oil price scenarios for the medium price trajectory which captures the current “consensus” view as well as a low and a high price scenarios that reflect more extreme possible developments that are unlikely but that one cannot rule out.

Can we download the forecasts via API?
Yes. Our API is set up to provide the latest forecast numbers. Technically, this works like the fuel prices.

With your login credentials that we will provide, you can generate an XML to integrate into your system. In the first days of every month, we upload the latest forecasts, and you can download them through the XML. The format of the XML does not change over time, so there is no need for new integration. If you set up a call to our server on, say, the 5th of each month, that would work.

Do you make longer-term forecasts?
Yes, we generate 10 year forecasts on demand. In those cases, we research the most recent projections about peak oil demand and the corresponding long-term oil price forecasts.

We also take a look at the longer history of fuel price trends in a country to try and glean the likelihood of major policy interventions at some point in the future.

These forecasts are annual as opposed to monthly, i.e. we project the level of fuel prices on an annual basis under the medium, high and low price scenarios.

Are you available for follow-up questions?
Yes, we respond promptly to questions from our clients and others interested in our services.

In fact, the ongoing communication with clients regarding the latest forecasts, any anticipated policy changes or the impact of major shifts in energy prices is an integral part of the service.





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