Gasoline and diesel price forecast

May 3, 2024; next: June 5, 2024 (monthly updates)

The table shows the predicted diesel and gasoline prices based on our latest forecast. The values are averages for the next three months expressed in local currency per liter of fuel (gallons for Canada and the USA). Included are most major economies.
Three month forecast, local currency
Diesel Gasoline
 Australia 1.97 1.94
 Brazil 6.13 5.59
 Canada (gallons) 6.43 7.44
 China 7.96 8.90
 France 1.90 1.82
 Germany 1.83 1.76
 India 93.47 104.19
 Japan 164.11 184.21
 Russia 54.23 61.73
 United Kingdom 1.64 1.57
 United States (gallons) 4.23 4.27

For a second month in a row, oil price predictions have increased by a few percentage points. That was reflected in the latest forecast of the U.S. Energy Information Administration as well as in various predictions by investment companies and individual forecasters. See for example, a recent poll discussed by Reuters.

The reason for the increase is the continued risk stemming from the Middle East conflict and the extended oil supply cuts by OPEC+. Also, U.S. producers seem more interested in generating profit than expanding production. On the demand side, global economic growth and, therefore, oil demand is holding up. With limitations on the supply side and steady demand, oil prices are expected to drift up in the next few months. In line with those predictions, our medium case scenario is based on slightly higher oil prices compared to last month.

Despite the upward trajectory, the level of uncertainty in the oil price forecasts continues to decline. The point forecasts from various sources are closer together indicating general agreement about the future path of oil prices. Such agreement, as long argued in the academic literature by Bomberger (1996) among others, indicates a low level of uncertainty for each individual forecaster. In response to that, we tightened slightly the range of the low and high oil price scenarios but not by much. The history of this market does not suggest stability in oil prices for very long periods of time.

Looking at individual countries, fuel prices continue to track oil prices more closely than in the previous couple of years. This suggests more limited government intervention in the market. However, prices continue to be set by governments in over half of the countries in the world. Colombia, for example, still sets diesel prices based on political considerations largely unrelated to oil prices. Similarly, our estimations for Mexico show a relatively limited impact of oil prices on fuel prices in the short run.

Individual country forecasts

We use our data to generate gasoline and diesel price forecasts for about 100 countries. The forecasts are updated on a monthly basis to take into account the latest oil price developments and projections. They are delivered by e-mail in an excel file that contains:
    - 24 months of historical data
    - forecast values for the next 24 months
    - medium (most likely), high and low price scenarios
    - measures of forecast accuracy
    - the oil prices used to generate the forecasts
    - brief commentary on recent and expected developments for oil prices
The cost of the forecasts depends on the number of countries and frequency of delivery. Please contact us for details.

Forecasting methodology

We use our historical fuel price data to determine how oil prices, exchange rates, and other factors determine fuel prices in each country. We then use the latest oil price forecasts to project fuel prices going forward. More information is available in our methodology notes.

About us

We publish energy price forecasts and wide-ranging, reliable, and up-to-date information on retail energy prices around the world including motor fuel prices, electricity prices, and natural gas prices. Our clients include various multinational corporations, international financial institutions, investment banks and others. Neven Valev, a Ph.D. economist with substantial research experience (Google Scholar, LinkedIn), leads our research team. More information about our data, team, clients, and media presence is on the about page.

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