Diesel price forecast for 80 countries

We generate forecasts for the following countries:

Andorra	Greece	Oman
Aruba	Grenada	Pakistan
Australia	Guatemala	Panama
Austria	Honduras	Peru
Belgium	Hong Kong	Philippines
Bosnia and Herzegovina	Hungary	Poland
Brazil	India	Portugal
Bulgaria	Indonesia	Qatar
Cambodia	Ireland	Romania
Canada	Israel	Russia
Cape Verde	Italy	Serbia
Chile	Jamaica	Singapore
China	Japan	Slovakia
Colombia	Jordan	Slovenia
Costa Rica	Kenya	South Africa
Croatia	Laos	South Korea
Cyprus	Latvia	Spain
Czech Republic	Lesotho	Sweden
Denmark	Lithuania	Switzerland
Dominican Republic	Luxembourg	Taiwan
El Salvador	Malaysia	Tanzania
Estonia	Mayotte	Thailand
Fiji	Mexico	Turkey
Finland	Moldova	Ukraine
France	Montenegro	United Kingdom
Georgia	Myanmar	USA
Germany	N. Macedonia	Vietnam
Ghana	Nepal

We use our proprietary fuel price data and ongoing research into fuel market policies to investigate the factors that drive fuel prices in various countries. Based on that and the latest oil price forecasts, we are able to generate fuel price projections. The following document summarizes our methodology.

The forecasts are compiled by a team of economists headed by Neven Valev, a Ph.D. economist with substantial research and teaching experience (Google Scholar, LinkedIn). Please feel free to contact Neven for more information.

For all 80 countries that we cover, our models are very accurate in the following sense. If we know what the Brent oil price will be after, say, one year, then (taking into account national policy, exchange rates, seasonality, inflation, etc.), we can tell with about 95 percent accuracy what the diesel price will be. The main reason is that these markets are either highly liberalized or regulated, but the regulated prices closely follow oil price developments. Hence, in those countries, the data reveals stable historical patterns.

Therefore, the question becomes whether the oil price predictions are accurate. If the oil predictions are accurate, the diesel price prediction will also be accurate.

For the oil price predictions, we use the latest forecasts from:

• The U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency;
• Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, and other investment banks;
• Regular surveys of forecasters published by media agencies such as Reuters; and
• The futures prices on the forward market.

We aggregate those predictions into our medium, low, and high scenarios. Essentially, that is the best available forecast on oil prices given all current relevant information reflected in the forecasts of various market participants.

During tranquil times, these predictions are generally accurate. In times of unexpected and large shocks, they are wrong. And because the oil market is subject to shocks, the forecasts come with a high-low range that reflects the upward and downward risks.

Against that background, we could select periods in the past where the forecasts came true and times when they did not. But, with the exception of the first months of the pandemic (when oil prices collapsed) and the first months of the war in Ukraine (when they sharply increased), the forecasts have been within the high-low range and often close to the medium predicted values. And even if they are somewhat off, they still reflect the general upward or downward trajectory that likely unfolds over time.

Our clients include multinationals and logistics companies with significant transport expenses as well as national automobile associations, investment and consulting companies, and NGOs. They use the forecasts for:

• Fuel procurement
• Budgeting, scenario planning, risk assessment, and hedging
• Keeping members or constituents informed on transport costs

Yes. Along with the forecast, every month we provide a concise narrative on oil price developments and country policy changes (taxes, regulations, etc) that impact diesel prices. Many countries have been active in that regard, trying to balance environmental, affordability, and fiscal objectives, particularly since the energy price shock in 2022. Hence, we keep track of those policies as they impact the forecasts quite a bit.

For those interested in policy, you may look at our fuel price regulations page that we update every month.

We generate diesel price forecasts for the following 39 countries in Europe:

Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom.

The cost depends on whether you need:

• a one-time forecast or a subscription
• if a subscription, monthly or quarterly updates
• how many countries; we provide discounts for multiple countries
• gasoline or diesel price forecast, or both

Please contact us for more information.

On an ongoing basis, we compile the oil demand and oil price projections of the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the World Bank, OPEC, and various other agencies. We also consult with the latest oil price predictions of major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Merryl Lynch and surveys of forecastes reported in the media by Reuters and others.

We also look at the forward market with the caveat that forward prices are not necessarily a reflection of market expectations of future oil prices.

Based on that research and our own experience studying these markets for over a decade, we generate three oil price scenarios for the medium price trajectory which captures the current “consensus” view as well as a low and a high price scenarios that reflect more extreme possible developments that are unlikely but that one cannot rule out.

Yes. Our API is set up to provide the latest forecast numbers. Technically, this works like the fuel prices.

With your login credentials that we will provide, you can generate an XML to integrate into your system. In the first days of every month, we upload the latest forecasts, and you can download them through the XML. The format of the XML does not change over time, so there is no need for new integration. If you set up a call to our server on, say, the 5th of each month, that would work.

Yes, we generate 10 year forecasts on demand. In those cases, we research the most recent projections about peak oil demand and the corresponding long-term oil price forecasts.

We also take a look at the longer history of fuel price trends in a country to try and glean the likelihood of major policy interventions at some point in the future.

These forecasts are annual as opposed to monthly, i.e. we project the level of fuel prices on an annual basis under the medium, high and low price scenarios.

Yes, we respond promptly to questions from our clients and others interested in our services.

In fact, the ongoing communication with clients regarding the latest forecasts, any anticipated policy changes or the impact of major shifts in energy prices is an integral part of the service.