Diesel and gasoline price forecast
We provide fuel price forecasts for 80 countries, available either through a subscription or as one-time reports.
Updated monthly, these forecasts incorporate the latest oil price trends, fuel price data, and fuel price policies. We have produced the forecasts for over five years.
The forecasts are delivered by e-mail in an excel file that contains:
You can download a sample from our latest forecast:
We are the global leader in providing retail energy price data and analysis on fuel, electricity, and natural gas prices in over 150 countries. Besides serving a large number of corporate clients and international organizations, we are also present in the global media. Here are links to a few media articles with our data:
What is included in each forecast
The forecasts are delivered by e-mail in an excel file that contains:
- 24 months of historical data
- Forecast values for the next 24 months
- Medium (most likely), high, and low price scenarios
- Measures of forecast accuracy
- The oil prices used to generate the forecasts
Sample forecast
You can download a sample from our latest forecast:
About us
We are the global leader in providing retail energy price data and analysis on fuel, electricity, and natural gas prices in over 150 countries. Besides serving a large number of corporate clients and international organizations, we are also present in the global media. Here are links to a few media articles with our data:
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you generate the forecasts?
In some countries, fuel prices are regulated, with the government setting prices. Often, fuel prices adjust slowly and partially to oil price changes, making political considerations essential.
In countries with liberalized fuel markets, prices adjust more rapidly but the size of the adjustments depends on taxation policies. The same change in oil prices results in different retail price changes.
Therefore, forecasting requires in-depth knowledge of the fuel market policies in a country. We have carried out such analysis across countries for over ten years.
Based on that, we have developed a custom forecasting model for each country that incorporates our proprietary historical data and our insights into important country specifics. The models are continuously reevaluated to reflect the most recent data and policies.
The forecasts are compiled by a team of economists lead by Neven Valev, a Ph.D. economist with substantial research and teaching experience (Google Scholar, LinkedIn). Please feel free to contact Neven for more information.
The forecasts are compiled by a team of economists lead by Neven Valev, a Ph.D. economist with substantial research and teaching experience (Google Scholar, LinkedIn). Please feel free to contact Neven for more information.
Are the forecasts accurate?
We generate forecasts only for countries where the models have over 90 percent accuracy based on a variety of metrics including the difference between the predicted and the actual levels of fuel prices.
Therefore, we generate forecasts for about 80 of the over 150 countries where we track fuel prices. In the remaining countries, the level of government intervention in fuel prices is too high and uncertain to allow a reasonable degree of predictability.
Do you make longer-term forecasts?
Yes, we generate 10 year forecasts on demand. In those cases, we research the most recent projections about peak oil demand and the corresponding long-term oil price forecasts.
We also take a look at the longer history of fuel price trends in a country to try and glean the likelihood of major policy interventions at some point in the future.
These forecasts are annual as opposed to monthly, i.e. we project the level of fuel prices on an annual basis under the medium, high and low price scenarios.
How do your clients use the forecasts?
Our typical client is a manufacturing multinational or a transport and logistics company with significant transport expenses. In these cases, diesel is the primary fuel of interest as it is heavily used in trucking.
These companies use our forecasts to inform their fuel procurement decisions and to budget supply chain costs. Often, the high-low scenarios are used to establish budget parameters and the need to implement hedging.
The companies frequently reach out to us to clarify various series in the forecasts and to ask us about the likely impact of anticipated policy changes. These communications are part of their ongoing subscription for the forecasts. Essentially, we monitor policies and trends and are available to answer questions on demand.
There are other clients too, however, where both diesel and gasoline prices are of interest. For example, we serve national automobile associations that need to inform their membership of future fuel costs.
What future oil prices do you use?
On an ongoing basis, we compile the oil demand and oil price projections of the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the World Bank, OPEC, and various other agencies. We also consult with the latest oil price predictions of major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Merryl Lynch and surveys of forecastes reported in the media by Reuters and others.
We also look at the forward market with the caveat that forward prices are not necessarily a reflection of market expectations of future oil prices.
Based on that research and our own experience studying these markets for over a decade, we generate three oil price scenarios for the medium price trajectory which captures the current “consensus” view as well as a low and a high price scenarios that reflect more extreme possible developments that are unlikely but that one cannot rule out.
What software do you use?
We use STATA, a long-standing and widely used software for econometric analysis.
However, much of our research is qualitative in nature looking at government reports and media articles about fuel price policies in various countries.
Are you available for follow-up questions?
Yes, we respond promptly to questions from our clients and others interested in our services.
In fact, the ongoing communication with clients regarding the latest forecasts, any anticipated policy changes or the impact of major shifts in energy prices is an integral part of the service.
For what countries do you generate forecasts?
We generate forecasts for the following countries:
Andorra | Greece | Oman |
Aruba | Grenada | Pakistan |
Australia | Guatemala | Panama |
Austria | Honduras | Peru |
Belgium | Hong Kong | Philippines |
Bosnia and Herzegovina | Hungary | Poland |
Brazil | India | Portugal |
Bulgaria | Indonesia | Qatar |
Cambodia | Ireland | Romania |
Canada | Israel | Russia |
Cape Verde | Italy | Serbia |
Chile | Jamaica | Singapore |
China | Japan | Slovakia |
Colombia | Jordan | Slovenia |
Costa Rica | Kenya | South Africa |
Croatia | Laos | South Korea |
Cyprus | Latvia | Spain |
Czech Republic | Lesotho | Sweden |
Denmark | Lithuania | Switzerland |
Dominican Republic | Luxembourg | Taiwan |
El Salvador | Malaysia | Tanzania |
Estonia | Mayotte | Thailand |
Fiji | Mexico | Turkey |
Finland | Moldova | Ukraine |
France | Montenegro | United Kingdom |
Georgia | Myanmar | USA |
Germany | N. Macedonia | Vietnam |
Ghana | Nepal |