Volatility of gasoline prices over time

The chart shows the coefficient of variation of gasoline prices for each country during the last 52 weeks (roughly one year). The numbers are automatically recalculated each week using the latest gasoline prices. In other words, at any point in time, the numbers are based on the latest 52 weeks of data for each country.

The coefficient of variation is calculated as follows:

Coefficient of Variation = Standard deviation of prices / Average prices

The coefficient essentially shows how volatile gasoline prices are in various countries. In principle, excessive volatility is not good as it increases uncertainly and makes it more difficult to budget transport costs.

How to interpret the numbers. When the CV equals zero that means that gasoline prices did not change at all in the last one year. When the CV is, say, about 10 this means that gasoline prices fluctuated within about 10 percent up and down from the average levels in a country. Based on that, we can see on the chart that quite a few countries have relatively low price volatility. That is due to prices being set by the regulators and not by the market in many - primarily less developed - countries. The regulators often try to limit fuel price volatility as it creates uncertainty for households and businesses.

Another reasons for low price volatility - more relevant in advanced economies - is the high level of taxes on fuel and, more specifically, the high level of excise taxes. The excise tax is fixed amount per liter/gallon of fuel sold and does now change when oil prices change. When the tax is high, it represents a large fraction of the overall retail price of gasoline and reduces the price volatility. Notice, for example, that most European countries have a relatively low CV. That is due to the high fuel taxes. In contrast, gasoline prices in the U.S. are relatively more volatile as taxes are lower.

At one end of the chart we see several countries with a zero CV. In those countries, gasoline prices did not change for an entire year. These are countries with heavily regulated and often subsidized gasoline prices. Some of the countries in that area are major oil exporters.

At the other end are countries with significant volatility in gasoline prices. This often happens in countries that experience high inflation or rapid currency depreciation. The volatile price of gasoline is just one more manifestation of the overall economic and monetary instability. It is possible, however, that the high CV is due primarily to a very low level of prices in a country. When prices are low on average, even relatively small deviations from that low average would appear large.


Malta
Malaysia
Saudi Arabia
Algeria
Bolivia
Oman
Kuwait
Qatar
Dom. Republic
Russia
Nicaragua
Mexico
Hong Kong
Japan
Tunisia
Taiwan
Ecuador
El Salvador
Kyrgyzstan
India
Belarus
Iceland
Mozambique
Benin
Nepal
Saint Lucia
Uruguay
Belize
Jordan
Mauritius
Ivory Coast
Serbia
Egypt
Mayotte
Cameroon
China
Colombia
Namibia
Barbados
Rwanda
Tanzania
Chile
Belgium
Togo
Italy
Lesotho
Germany
Poland
Israel
Sweden
South Africa
Singapore
Estonia
Cambodia
Switzerland
Norway
Thailand
Andorra
Slovakia
Zambia
UK
Burma
Greece
Bosnia & Herz.
Denmark
Luxembourg
Latvia
New Zealand
Guatemala
Portugal
Australia
Cayman Islands
Spain
Peru
France
Netherlands
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Burkina Faso
Finland
Laos
Kenya
Philippines
Cyprus
Ireland
Grenada
Aruba
Montenegro
Romania
Bulgaria
Jamaica
Fiji
Austria
Guyana
Lithuania
N. Macedonia
Canada
Honduras
Ukraine
South Korea
Indonesia
Puerto Rico
Turkey
Moldova
USA
Sierra Leone
Georgia
Cape Verde
Costa Rica
Suriname
Vietnam
Malawi
Hungary
Curacao
Sri Lanka
Madagascar
Panama
UAE
Pakistan
Brazil
Argentina
Ghana


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