Fuel price forecast for Canada
We provide regular gasoline and diesel price forecasts for Canada.
The forecasts are updated monthly using the latest fuel price data and oil price projections.
We have provided this service since 2019.
Forecast Accuracy
Our econometric models for Canada achieve close to 90 percent accuracy, taking into account the impact of oil prices, exchange rates, time trends, and seasonality on fuel prices.
Our methodology is explained here.
We achieve that high accuracy by: 1) Continuously tracking Canadian fuel prices as well as tax and policy changes in Canada on the national and provincial levels;
2) Continuously refining our forecasting models in line with the latest fuel market structures;
and 3) Studying Canada in the context of broader regional and global trends.
As a result, we have almost 100 percent resubscription rate among our clients.
What is Included
The forecasts are generated monthly and include:
- 6 months of historical price data
- 24-month forward forecasts
- Medium, high, and low price scenarios
- Forecast accuracy metrics
- Explanations of policy context and oil price drivers
More Information
Please reach out to us for more information, free sample, and pricing.
Fuel price behavior in Canada
Regulation
Canada has a liberalized fuel market with limited government intervention which means that fuel prices track oil price developments quite closely.
At the same time, being a significant producer of oil and having a substantial refining capacity, the government can and does interfere occasionally in fuel market pricing, especially in oil-rich Ontario.
It is therefore important to track government policies, including the latest changes to fuel taxes.
You can compare Canada to other countries in terms of fuel price regulation.
Exchange rate
Note also that the CAD/USD exchange rate plays an important role in the fuel price dynamics in Canada.
Unlike Europe, however, where the euro/USD exchange rate has an impact on fuel prices similar to that of crude oil prices, the impact in Canada is more muted.
Diesel prices in Canada are affected more strongly by the USD exchange rate compared to gasoline prices.
You can read more about this here.
Regional prices
Fuel prices across provinces in Canada move very closely with each other.
The chart below shows the average correlation of gasoline prices in each province with the gasoline prices in all other provinces.
A number close to 1 indicates high co-movement, something that is the case for all provinces.
These correlations are based on over ten years of historical data using Natural Resources Canada as the data source.
