Gasoline and diesel price forecast, December 2022 edition

Unlike the previous months when the expected tendency was of declining prices, now the expectation has shifted to a gradual increase in prices over time. The primary reason is that prices have already declined somewhat.

This month we continued to tighten the spread between the low and high scenarios as the markets are calmer and large volatility is less likely. Still, looking a few months ahead, prices may increase quite a bit when China relaxes the zero covid policy and the central banks pivot away from raising interest rates. The low scenario is less likely compared to the high scenario but it cannot be ruled out. The world economy and, respectively, oil demand may deteriorate significantly in 2023.

One thing to note is that the percent difference between the actual and predicted diesel prices for November is a bit higher than normal and almost uniformly negative across countries. That means that diesel prices are now higher by a few percentage points than what can be expected given the actual oil prices and exchange rates. The same is not observed for gasoline prices where the difference between actual and expected prices is small. In other words, the market for diesel is tight.

The impending ban on the sale of oil and later on oil distillates from Russia by the EU probably has something to do with that. Our reading of the situation, however, is that the ban would have a short-lived impact on prices. Countries in the EU have been increasing their stored volumes of oil and seem to be close to being independent of Russian seaborne oil. The dependency on diesel fuel is still there (and it is significant) but that ban is not due to take effect until February which gives more time to adjust. Overall, there would be substantial internal political pressure to secure fuel supplies before a ban is implemented. EU policymakers do not want to disrupt transportation or/and to contribute to inflation by raising fuel cost.

The wild card in all that is Russia. If Russia decides to cut diesel sales to Europe ahead of and in anticipation of the ban, prices for diesel will increase substantially. That seems unlikely as Russia draws revenues from these sales and the market for diesel elsewhere is sluggish (China and India seem oversupplied given the zero covid policy in China) but it is not out of the question.

Countries
select all
deselect all
Andorra
Aruba
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Belize
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Brazil
Bulgaria
Burma (Myanmar)
Cambodia
Canada
Cape Verde
Chile
China
Colombia
Costa Rica
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Dominican Republic
El Salvador
Estonia
Fiji
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Ghana
Greece
Grenada
Guatemala
Honduras
Hong Kong
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Japan
Jordan
Kenya
Laos
Latvia
Lesotho
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Macedonia
Malaysia
Mayotte
Mexico
Moldova
Montenegro
Nepal
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Panama
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Singapore
Slovakia
Slovenia
South Africa
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Tanzania
Thailand
Togo
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom
USA
Vietnam
Gasoline
Diesel
About the forecasts

Our historical data tell us how fuel prices behave when oil prices, exchange rates, seasons, and other factors change. We use that information along with the most recent crude oil price forecasts to project fuel prices. The forecasts are published every month with predictions for the next 24 months. Here is a description of our methodology.

How to download forecasts

Select countries and fuel types to see the total cost. The forecasts are available for immediate download after payment.

What is included

Historical prices for 6 months and a forecast for 24 months starting in November 2022 (see the format). The fuel prices are for Octane-95 gasoline or the closest equivalent and regular diesel fuel. These are national average retail (pump) prices per liter of fuel (gallons for Canada and the U.S.) expressed in local currency.

Oil prices used in the forecast

We use three scenarios for medium (most likely), high and low future oil prices. These are based on the most recent crude oil price information from the U.S. EIA, the World Bank, the IEA, the NYMEX and multiple investment banks. See the exact oil prices used in the forecast.

Cost and delivery

The forecasts are available for immediate download after payment. The cost is 20 USD per country for each fuel or 30 USD for both fuels. Full refund within one week of payment if not satisfied. We offer discounts for larger purchases and subscriptions. Please contact us for details.

About us

We have tracked retail energy prices since 2012 including fuel prices, electricity prices and natural gas prices in over 150 countries. Our team of economists is headed by Neven Valev (Google Scholar, LinkedIn), a Ph.D. economist with extensive research experience. We provide data, forecasts, and consulting services to a wide range of clients.


The cost of your selection is USD. Please contact us for a discount for larger purchases or regular subscriptions.

After payment, the system will take you back to this page where you can download a receipt and the forecast in an Excel file. In paypal, please click "return to merchant" after the payment.

We offer a full refund within one week of payment if you are not satisfied.

Please contact us if you have any questions about the data or the forecasts.

through stripe
through paypal


This site uses cookies.
Learn more here


OK